Tips & Predictions

Saka to shine in our 25/1 Arsenal v Luton Bet Builder

Both Teams to Score
Luton to Commit 12 or More Fouls
Under 3.5 Cards
Bukayo Saka to Have Two or More Shots on Target
Over 7.5 Arsenal Corners

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Wednesday 7:30pm: Arsenal v Luton
Premier League match at the Emirates
TV: TNT Sports 2

Both Teams to Score

Arsenal have only conceded four goals in nine Premier League games since the turn of the year and face a Luton side that almost everyone expects to beat at a canter, so it would appear wise to back them to keep a clean sheet on Wednesday night.

Luton, however, have developed a knack of scoring against pretty much every team they come up against.

Rob Edwards’ side may find themselves in the bottom three, but it is not for want of finding the back of the net.

Luton have scored in each of their last 18 Premier League games, scoring an impressive 33 goals in the process, including three against Arsenal in December.

Their tally of 43 goals scored for the season is higher than eight other clubs and they have recently opened the scoring in trips to Liverpool and Tottenham.

It has been keeping goals out at the other end that has proved Luton’s biggest problem.

Luton have actually managed two clean sheets in that 18-game run, but they have also conceded 40 goals, including five in two games against Sheffield United (roughly 20% of Sheffield United’s total goal tally).

Their record of 62 goals conceded is the third-worst in the league and there is almost no chance that they keep this Arsenal side at bay on Wednesday.

Arsenal have scored a whopping 70 goals in 30 games this season – the best attacking record in the division – and will almost certainly score multiple goals on Wednesday. They may just concede one at the other end, though.

Luton to Commit 12 or More Fouls

All signs point to Arsenal dominating possession and territory on Wednesday night.

The Gunners’ average of 60.7% possession is the fourth-highest in the league this season and stands almost 20 points higher than Luton’s average of 41.3%, the sixth-lowest in the league.

Luton are completely comfortable playing without the ball and are likely to record far less possession than their average when they travel to the Emirates on Wednesday.

Comfortable without the ball they may be, but a dearth of possession can logically translate into a higher number of fouls, with Luton averaging 11.7 fouls per game this season.

Their average seems to rise against the top teams in the league, especially away from home.

Edwards’ side committed 14 fouls in their recent trips to Liverpool and Tottenham, while they committed 16 fouls against Manchester City in December and 14 fouls in the return fixture against Arsenal.

There is every chance that they will commit at least 12 on Wednesday.

Under 3.5 Cards

Luton’s high foul count is at odds with their low card count.

Edwards’ side have committed the seventh-highest number of fouls in the league while receiving the eighth-fewest cards in the division. They have conceded 59 bookings and no red cards in 30 games this season and are the only team in the league to avoid a sending off at this stage of the season.

Arsenal, meanwhile, boast the best disciplinary record in the league, receiving 43 bookings and two red cards.

They are unlikely to concede too many on Wednesday in what is likely to be a routine victory where they enjoy the lion’s share of possession.

Bukayo Saka to Have Two or More Shots on Target

Bukayo Saka hobbled off in Arsenal’s drab draw at Manchester City on Sunday, but Mikel Arteta has since confirmed that the substation was related to fatigue rather than a fresh injury concern.

The England winger is thus likely to start on Wednesday night and should be chomping at the bit to get himself on the scoresheet.

Saka has scored a hugely impressive 13 Premier League goals this season, including seven in his last eight appearances.

He averages almost three shots per game and should have a lot of joy against a Luton side that has faced the second-highest number of shots in the league this season.

In eight games against the top five this season, they have faced a staggering 155 shots, an average of almost 20 shots per game.

Arsenal will almost certainly reach that average and Saka could easily be responsible for at least two shots on target.

Over 7.5 Arsenal Corners

If Arsenal dominate possession and the shot count on Wednesday, then it stands to reason that they will win a high number of corners as well.

This will be a backs-to-the-wall job for Luton, who will likely try to cling to a result for as long as possible.

Arsenal, who have won the second-highest number of corners in the division at an average of over seven per game, are highly likely to match that average on Wednesday night.

Both Teams to Score
Luton to Commit 12 or More Fouls
Under 3.5 Cards
Bukayo Saka to Have Two or More Shots on Target
Over 7.5 Arsenal Corners

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The latest football odds are on PaddyPower.com now

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