Gianni Infantino’s position as FIFA president has come under serious threat after his plan to sell stakes in FIFA competitions to private investment firms, apparently without the knowledge of other senior football officials, triggered a revolt across the game.
UEFA, FIFA’s fiercest critic, has threatened to boycott all FIFA competitions, including the World Cup, while Concacaf has called for a “full review” of the organisation’s leadership. Infantino has also lost the support of some traditionally loyal countries in the Asian Football Confederation (AFC), as well as two close allies.
Senior adviser Carlos Cordeiro and chief operating officer Kevin Lamour have both abandoned him. After Infantino reversed his position in the early hours of Saturday morning, UEFA issued another damaging statement saying it had lost confidence in him.
The stand-off has created the most serious challenge yet to Infantino’s leadership. European football’s governing body now believes it may have its best opportunity to remove him, although the process would be difficult and there is no guarantee it would succeed.
What could happen to Infantino?
The quickest way for Infantino to leave office would be for him to resign, as his predecessor Sepp Blatter did in 2015.
However, Infantino still retains support and could attempt to remain in the post until March, when he is due to stand for re-election for a fourth and final term.
The FIFA Council could try to force the issue by calling an emergency meeting. Such a meeting would be required if 19 of the 37 council members requested one.
UEFA has nine council members, while the AFC has seven, Concacaf five, Africa six, Conmebol five and Oceania three. The council is completed by Infantino and FIFA secretary general Mattias Grafstrom.
BBC Sport understands there are doubts about whether the 19 votes needed to convene the meeting can be secured.
If that threshold is reached, the meeting must take place within two weeks. The council could then call on Infantino to tender his resignation, although he would be entitled to refuse. Even so, such a move would increase the pressure on him.
The next possible step would be an extraordinary congress involving FIFA’s 211 member associations. It could be called if one-fifth of the associations – 43 in total – “make such a request in writing”.
UEFA, which has 55 member nations, can therefore trigger an extraordinary congress whenever it chooses. The meeting would take at least two months to organise and more likely three.
A vote of no confidence would effectively become an election, although it could take place without another candidate being declared. A majority of 106 votes would be needed for the motion to pass.
UEFA has 55 votes, Africa 54, Asia 46, Concacaf 35, Oceania 11 and Conmebol 10. Africa, Conmebol and Oceania have not criticised Infantino’s investment plan.
Although 136 countries officially rejected the proposal, opposing the plan does not necessarily mean those countries would vote to remove the president. Qatar has already publicly backed Infantino, while Mexico has distanced itself from the joint Concacaf statement.
Who could replace him?
If UEFA and Infantino’s other critics decide to pursue an election, they would need to find a candidate capable of uniting football associations across the world.
A European contender could struggle to win global support because UEFA has been so outspoken in its opposition to Infantino. Some countries could view a European challenge as an attempt by UEFA to take control of FIFA itself.
The preferred candidate would therefore need to attract support from countries in Concacaf, Africa and Asia that have previously backed Infantino but might now be persuaded to change sides.
Concacaf president Victor Montagliani appears to be the strongest potential challenger. Like Infantino, he was elected in 2016 on a promise to reform governance.
The former president of Canada Soccer played a major role in the preparations for and delivery of the 2026 World Cup. He also speaks French, Italian and Spanish in addition to English.
Another possible candidate is Sheikh Salman bin Ebrahim Al Khalifa, president of the AFC. First elected in 2013, he was re-elected unopposed for a fourth term, which runs until 2027.
Sheikh Salman approved the AFC’s strong criticism of the way FIFA is being run under Infantino. The 46-member confederation is also aware that the sums proposed in Infantino’s plan are substantial when compared with the football spending of its individual members.
A less likely option is Paris Saint-Germain president Nasser Al-Khelaifi, who is also chair of European Football Clubs.
Al-Khelaifi helped reunite European football after another major crisis threatened to divide the sport: the failed European Super League project. In theory, the Qatari would be a credible rival to Infantino, but he does not appear to want the job. Qatar’s support for Infantino could also count against him.
Can Infantino survive?
In most other businesses, Infantino’s position would appear untenable. Football, however, does not operate like a normal business.
Blatter had been re-elected just one week before resigning in 2015, when he was left with no alternative amid a corruption scandal.
Infantino has indicated that he intends to continue fighting. In a statement on Saturday, he said his intent “was to bring all interested parties back together in the coming days and weeks”.
A more conciliatory approach could allow him to contain the crisis. Morocco, one of the co-hosts of the 2030 World Cup, backed Infantino on Saturday evening. Egypt also praised him for cancelling his proposed plan.
Infantino may calculate that winning back member associations one at a time would make a successful no-confidence vote less likely. His support base has remained strong for a long period, which explains why he may still believe the crisis can be overcome.
Because any vote of no confidence would be at least three months away, he has time to repair some of the damage. The contest is effectively a race to 106 votes, and every passing day gives Infantino another opportunity to persuade former allies that the investment proposal was an aberration.
UEFA’s challenge is to create circumstances in which Infantino has no option but to resign. That would require criticism from football federations around the world to continue.
The situation could become even more serious if major sponsors begin distancing themselves from FIFA. During the organisation’s 2015 scandal, Sony, Emirates, Castrol, Continental Tyres and Johnson & Johnson were among the companies to end major sponsorship agreements.
There is no indication that sponsors are preparing to do so this time, but the dispute over Infantino’s leadership has the potential to continue for some time.
