The Favourites
Kylian Mbappe
Harry Kane
The Second Tier
Cristiano Ronaldo
Antoine Griezmann
Romelu Lukaku
Alvaro Morata
The Outsiders
Rasmus Hojlund
Dusan Vlahovic
Aleksandar Mitrovic
Lois Openda
One of the most popular markets at a major international tournament is the Golden Boot. Everyone loves trying to predict which player will score the most goals, but it is not easy.
It’s not like the Premier League, where Erling Haaland can miss seven games, have a middling campaign and still take the Golden Boot with ease. At the Euros, it only takes around five goals, which opens the market up to less obvious players. Milan Baros bagged just two goals for Liverpool in 2003/04 but then got five at Euro 2004 and was the tournament’s top scorer.
Paddy Power is offering each way-odds for the top five in the Golden Boot standings. History shows that just three goals are usually enough to get a player into the leading quintet.
And Paddy’s got a new offer too. If you back someone in the Golden Boot market to the tune of £/€10 you will receive a free £/€1 Bet Builder for every shot on target they have, and a free £/€1 Bet Builder for every goal they score, so even if your top scorer bet doesn’t land, you should earn some bonus wagers.
- The crucial part to note is that the offer applies to bets placed from 12:00 on Saturday, June 1 until 20:00 on Friday, June 14. You’ll also need to Opt-in for this one, which you can do HERE.
It pays to think tactically when making your selection. Here’s a look at five decent options in this market, from favourites through to long shots.
The Favourites
There are two clear top-scorer frontrunners, Kylian Mbappe and Harry Kane. They have both won a Golden Boot at a World Cup so clearly have the pedigree, and they each play for one of the two leading teams in the outright winner market.
Mbappe had the edge in qualification, with nine goals to eight, but the Bayern Munich man was the top scorer in Europe’s big five leagues this season, netting nine more times than his Paris Saint-Germain counterpart.
If you’re picking between these two, it may come down to which country you think will win Euro 2024. If the draw follows seeding, England will play France in the second semi-final on July 10. At least it will be after the General Election, so you won’t have to hear Rishi Sunak or Keir Starmer pretend to care about it.
With an eye on our new offer, Mbappe averaged more shots on target per 90 minutes both in league football this season and the qualifying process for Euro 2024, so is perhaps a slightly better choice. But either man would be an eminently sensible pick.
Second Tier
Kane and Mbappe are followed by eight men who are priced between 14/1 and 25/1. They include Cristiano Ronaldo and Antoine Griezmann, the Golden Boot winners at the previous two European Championships respectively.
Both would be reasonable choices, as the first and joint-third top scorers in the history of the competition. There are other good options though.
Romelu Lukaku is the form player in international European football. He was the top scorer in qualifying and should be aided here by Belgium receiving a relatively kind draw. There were 16 players who had at least 11 attempts on target in qualification and none had them as frequently as Lukaku.
Alvaro Morata might seem like an odd choice but hear me out. He scored three goals at both of the last two European Championships, the only player other than Ronaldo for whom that is the case.
The former Chelsea man also had the fifth best shots on target conversion rate in qualifying among players who attempted at least seven and whose countries qualified. With the odds implying Spain should make the semi-finals, Morata makes for a decent each-way possibility for the Golden Boot.
The Outsiders
Picking a long shot is very hard but there are some players worth considering. Only four got more goals in qualifying than Rasmus Hojlund and only three recorded more shots on target. With Denmark odds-on to qualify from England’s group, the Manchester United forward should get at least four games with the Euro 2020 semi-finalists.
Serbia are also expected to qualify from Group C. Both Dusan Vlahovic and Aleksandar Mitrovic are 50/1 for the Golden Boot, but the former was the second top scorer in Serie A this season while the latter was in Saudia Arabia, scoring 28 goals in 28 league appearances. Vlahovic looks the better option of the two and had a higher shots on target per 90 rate in qualification too.
Another 50/1 shot could become the star of the summer though. Lois Openda has only made three starts for Belgium so is far from certain to play every match. But manager Domenico Tedesco would be crazy not to give the RB Leipzig forward opportunities this summer.
Openda was the joint-fifth top scorer in the big leagues this summer and only Kane had more shots on target. While he’s a slightly risky selection, the 24-year-old looks the most intriguing long-shot pick.
The Favourites
Kylian Mbappe
Harry Kane
The Second Tier
Cristiano Ronaldo
Antoine Griezmann
Romelu Lukaku
Alvaro Morata
The Outsiders
Rasmus Hojlund
Dusan Vlahovic
Aleksandar Mitrovic
Lois Openda
All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
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