Tips & Predictions

12/1 punt tops our Dortmund v Real Madrid best bets

Dortmund to Score 1+ Goals & Dortmund 5+ Corners
3+ Goals, 5+ Cards, 9+ Corners
Fullkrug First Dortmund SOT & Vinicius First Real SOT

Borussia Dortmund v Real Madrid
Champions League Final at Wembley, London
TV: TNT Sports, Saturday, 8pm

Dortmund to Score 1+ Goals & 5+ Corners

Dortmund certainly had a kinder run through the knockout stages than Real Madrid but it cannot be said that they don’t deserve their place in the final. The German side have battled their way past Atletico Madrid and PSG to reach the final for the first time since 2013 and have scored in each of their last ten Champions League games.

They face a Real Madrid side that has kept just one clean sheet in the knockout stages and will be confident of giving their fans something to cheer about on Saturday, even if they are massive underdogs. Los Blancos, meanwhile, have tended to concede a huge number of corners in the Champions League knockout stages, averaging over seven corners conceded per game.

Dortmund, on the other hand, have won an average of over five corners per game in the knockout stages this season and could very conceivably win five on Saturday.

3+ Goals, 5+ Cards, 9+ Corners

It has been six years since a Champions League final saw both teams find the back of the net. Bizarrely, each of the last four finals have finished 1-0, while the 2019 showpiece event between Spurs and Liverpool hit the dizzying heights of 2-0 and may have been the dullest final of the lot.

That record is unlikely to continue in the 2024 edition. Real Madrid have kept just one clean sheet in the Champions League knockout stages this season and have conceded in each of their last five ties.

Dortmund, meanwhile, somehow managed to keep a clean sheet in both legs of their semi-final clash against PSG despite conceding a plethora of chances in both games.

Saturday’s final will naturally be a cagey affair, but neither side has it in them defensively to win this one 1-0. Both Real Madrid and Dortmund are also averaging just under two cards per game in the tournament so far, which should rise considering what’s at stake on Saturday.

In six knockout games this year, Real Madrid have conceded 45 corners at a rate of over seven per game, while they have won 24 corners at an average of four per game. Only one of their knockout games has seen fewer than 10 corners. Saturday’s final is likely to follow the trend.

Fullkrug 1st Dortmund SOT & Vinicius 1st Real SOT

Niclas Fulkrug and Vinicius Jr have played important roles in leading their teams to the Champions League final. Fulkrug has top-scored for Dortmund in this season’s competition with three goals, grabbing the all-important winner in their 1-0 win over PSG in the semi-final first leg.

He also grabbed a vital goal in their quarter-final second-leg win over Atletico Madrid and averages the second-highest number of shots of any Dortmund player in the competition. BVB’s Number 14 spurned numerous chances against PSG but showed great positional sense to get on the end of those chances and is by far the most likely Dortmund player to land the first effort on target on Saturday.

Vinicius, on the other hand, has been equally instrumental in Real Madrid’s run to the final and currently stands as their joint-top scorer in the competition. The Brazilian has scored four of Real Madrid’s ten knockout goals in the competition and averages three shots per game. Only Rodrygo boasts a higher average.

There is a very good chance that Vinicius will record the Spanish champion’s first effort on goal on Saturday.

 

Dortmund to Score 1+ Goals & Dortmund 5+ Corners
3+ Goals, 5+ Cards, 9+ Corners
Fullkrug First Dortmund SOT & Vinicius First Real SOT

All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

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