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The 2022 FIFA World Cup is almost here. With the long-awaited tournament set to kick off on Sunday, we take a look at the top contenders to lift the trophy in Qatar on December 18.
Can Lionel Messi guide Argentina to glory? Will the Brazilians clinch a record sixth title? Could Belgium’s golden generation finally live up to the hype? Or will the Netherlands go all the way for the very first time?
It’s getting serious now ????? pic.twitter.com/OuotZTjhP0
— FIFA World Cup (@FIFAWorldCup) November 17, 2022
Let’s take a closer look at the top four contenders.
According to our statistical model, Argentina have an 11.5% chance of winning the World Cup. That makes Lionel Scaloni’s side the most likely champions.
Earlier this week, the Argentines extended their unbeaten run to 36 games with an easy 5-0 victory over the United Arab Emirates. Believe it or not, their last defeat came all the way back in July 2019.
It goes without saying that all eyes will be on Messi in Qatar. Having almost singlehandedly guided his country to Copa America glory last year, the whole of Argentina expects Messi to deliver the World Cup trophy.
Brazil hold the record for the most World Cup triumphs, having secured the famous silverware on five occasions over the years. Based on our mathematical algorithm, they stand a 7.8% chance of adding a sixth title to their collection in Qatar.
Since losing the 2021 Copa America final to Argentina, Tite’s men have notched a 15-game unbeaten streak – picking up 12 wins and three draws. Better still, they head into the World Cup on the back of seven straight victories.
With world-class attackers such as Neymar, Vinicius Junior, Rodrygo, Antony and Gabriel Jesus in their ranks, the Brazilians will be confident of going all the way in Qatar.
It wouldn’t be unfair to say that Belgium have flattered to deceive in recent years. After finishing third at the 2018 World Cup, the Red Devils fell at the quarter-final stage of last year’s European Championship.
Still, according to our statistical model, Roberto Martinez’s side are the third-likeliest winners of the 2022 World Cup. The Belgians have a favourable group and are expected to go deep into the tournament.
Remarkably, the Netherlands have reached three World Cup finals but have never managed to lift the trophy – losing back-to-back finals during the 1970s before falling to Spain in the 2010 showpiece.
This year, however, the Dutch look set to enjoy a successful campaign. With Virgil van Dijk in defence and Memphis Depay leading the way in attack, Louis van Gaal’s side have a 4.65% of winning the tournament.
