Tips & Predictions

Andrew Beasley’s 22/1 England v Brazil Bet Builder

England To Win
Under 2.5 Goals
England to have 4 or more shots on target
Harry Kane to score anytime
England most corners

A Bet Builder with these bets pays at approximately 22/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.


The latest football odds are on PaddyPower.com now

Saturday 7:00pm: England v Brazil
TV: Channel 4

The endgame begins. Gareth Southgate’s England contract expires at the end of the year and his side are Paddy Power’s 3/1 favourites to win Euro 2024. He’ll either leave the job as Sir Gareth or be mocked up as a root vegetable by the tabloid gutter press. It’s a fine line!

The Three Lions begin their warm up programme for the summer tournament in Germany with a game against everyone’s favourite European side, er, Brazil? England face the (football hipster alert) Seleção at Wembley on Saturday before Belgium visit the national stadium three nights later 

In FIFA ranking terms, these two games are harder than the pair Southgate’s boys play in their June warm up games (Bosnia-Herzegovina and Iceland) or in the group stages at the Euros (Serbia, Denmark and Slovenia). Will they pass this stern test?

England to Win

Brazil might be ranked fifth in the world, but they are in a relative slump. They come into this game on the back of three consecutive defeats, something they’ve not experienced since 2001. 

While that means they’ll win the next World Cup (omen fans), their last match saw them suffer a first ever qualification loss on home soil, and it was to Argentina. It’s therefore no surprise they have a new manager, with Dorival Junior the latest gaffer to occupy one of football’s hottest of hot seats. 

If he has nothing else going for him, England have a worse record against Brazil than against any of the other 91 nations they’ve faced in their history. The Three Lions have triumphed just four times in 26 meetings, but they are unbeaten in the last three.

The one clash in the Southgate era ended 0-0 at Wembley in 2017. He can be confident of collecting a rare victory here though.

England have won their last 12 friendlies, for starters, and while those games were not against sides of Brazil’s calibre, the Three Lions are also unbeaten (aside from on penalties) in their last six home games against top 10 ranked nations.

The absence of both Alisson Becker and Ederson from the visitors’ goal will make England’s task easier, and they will win to rev up the hype train ahead of Euro 2024.

Under 2.5 goals

Since that goalless draw between these teams seven years ago, England’s seven Wembley matches against elite nations all saw both teams score and five of them saw at least three goals. 

However, Brazil’s recent matches have been rather dour, with only nine goals scored across the last five. Dorival Junior’s career suggests he is unlikely to change that, with his teams’ matches in the last decade averaging 2.46 goals per game, and just 2.04 in his last job with São Paulo.

Combine that with the fact four of England’s last six matches featured fewer than three goals and we’re looking at an Under 2.5 Goals selection.

 

 

England to have 4 or more shots on target

A potential low scoring match does not mean the home side won’t create a few chances. Gareth’s guys have averaged 5.4 shots on target across their 10 matches at Wembley in the last three seasons and did not have fewer than three in any of them.

With Brazil conceding 12 across their last three friendlies, it seems likely England will have at least four shots on target on Saturday evening.

Harry Kane to score anytime

England’s top scorer in the last international break was that elusive forward, Own Goal. With Harry Maguire lumbering around, OG might score again, but failing that we must pick Harry Kane.

The 10-season wonder is in ridiculous form for club and country. Kane has scored in nine of his last 10 starts for England, and seven of the previous eight on home soil.

He also has 11 strikes in his last 10 matches for Bayern Munich. Brazil might just have a more solid defence than Darmstadt or Mainz but Kane should break them with a goal. Probably from the penalty spot, but they all count.

England most corners

If you’re betting on England at Wembley, back a low corner count.

The Three Lions’ 18 matches there in the last three years saw an average of just eight and just one – a 1-0 friendly win over Australia earlier this season – featured over 11. Spinal Tap, England are not. 

But they almost always have more corners than their opponents at home. Against top 10 sides, Southgate’s boys have won the Corner Match Bet in six of the last eight, drawing the other two. They can continue that run here to round off our Brazil Bet Builder. Boom!

England To Win
Under 2.5 Goals
England to have 4 or more shots on target
Harry Kane to score anytime
England most corners

A Bet Builder with these bets pays at approximately 22/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

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The latest football odds are on PaddyPower.com now

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