France must avoid defeat by Turkey on Sunday to secure a place in the UEFA Nations League quarter-finals after losing 3-1 to Italy in their penultimate Group A match.
Zinedine Zidane’s side travelled to face Italy on Thursday seeking to confirm top spot, but their first defeat since he became manager left the qualification race open.
France took the lead through Michael Olise at San Siro, only for Italy to recover and win 3-1. The result leaves both teams on 10 points, with Italy first on goal difference of +5 and France second on +3.
France remain in control of their own qualification prospects ahead of Sunday’s final round of group matches, when they face Turkey in Bordeaux. A draw would guarantee their progress to the quarter-finals, regardless of the result between Italy and Belgium.
How France can qualify
France will go through if they avoid defeat against Turkey.
Even a loss may not eliminate them, provided Belgium fail to beat Italy in the match being played at the same time in Brussels.
However, a combination of results could send France out at the group stage.
If France lose to Turkey, they will remain on 10 points. Should Belgium beat Italy, the Red Devils would move to 12 points, finish top of Group A and qualify for the quarter-finals.
That would leave France and Italy level on 10 points and competing for second place. Under the UEFA Nations League regulations, the first tie-breaker between teams level on points is the number of points gained in their head-to-head matches.
Italy hold the advantage in that comparison. They collected four points from their two meetings with France, having won one match and drawn the other, while France took only one point.
Italy would therefore finish second and join Belgium in the quarter-finals, with France dropping to third and being eliminated from the competition.
The equation leaves France with a clear priority: a draw against Turkey would remove the risk, while defeat would become costly if Belgium overcome Italy.
France could also receive a boost from the possible return of Kylian Mbappe. The captain scored the winning goal when the teams met in the first match, and Zidane is waiting to discover whether he will be available for the decisive fixture in Bordeaux.
France’s elimination scenario is:
– France lose to Turkey.
– Belgium beat Italy.
– France finish third behind Italy on the head-to-head record.
