The Draw
Both Teams To Score – Yes
Over 3.5 Goals
Ivan Toney To Have 2 Or More Shots On Target
Ivan Toney To Score
All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
The latest football odds are on PaddyPower.com now
Brentford v Brighton
Premier League
Gtech Community Stadium, Brentford, Wednesday, 7:30pm
TNT Sports 3
Brighton and Brentford are in weird situations. Their entire identity is based around their football managers. Thomas Frank and Roberto De Zerbi are ignored week to week until such a time comes when their sides get a big result, and mass media put them up as potential outside bets for bigger jobs.
So in a way, this is a fixture that weirdos on Twitter will use to justify when their clubs go for the cheaper option down the line when they’ve to pick one of these over the other. I’m christening this the Nerd Derby. You know, the people who use the term ‘double pivot’ seriously.
Brentford are probably flirting with the bottom three but they’re not interesting enough to go down; having fully embedded themselves in the Crystal Palace and Fulham mould of inevitability. And Brighton themselves aren’t consistent enough to land a Champions League challenge. So are these two just floating around waiting for their managers to leave?
On that note…
The Draw
Brighton won’t lose this game, but the only teams they’ve beaten this calendar year are Forest, Sheffield United and Palace – the first two being sub-functional and the latter incapable of scoring goals. Their formula is they need to play a side that can’t score.
Unfortunately, Brentford have the opposite problem, so we expect this game to revert to mean and play out with the same level of emotional investment and unpredictability you come to expect with a fixture like this.
Both Teams to Score
Manchester City are the only side to stop Brentford from scoring in the Premier League since early December – they’re lethal.
The problem is, in that time, they’ve also only won twice – against Forest and Wolves. Are you starting to find the theme?
For these two to win games everything must go right – and it rarely does. The only difference is that Brighton are very hard to beat. Somewhat goal-shy in recent times, their patterns looked a lot better against Liverpool.
And that’s a warning sign for the west Londoners.
Over 3.5 Goals
These two have been creating a lot of chances, but aren’t quite converting at an acceptable clip just yet.
But getting bogged down in those numbers doesn’t work for medium-term projections. Neither can keep the ball well enough in the middle third and the only reason Brighton generally gets away with this? They’re happy to play through Lewis Dunk.
Given they’ll feel they need to win this based on reputation, it places a huge emphasis on advancing the ball – and that will cause them issues.
Ivan Toney to Have Two or More Shots on Target
His frustrations in going six without a goal in the league should culminate in him lashing out. He’s not the most measured of characters by any stretch, so I fully believe this is the game where Brentford have enough of the ball in space in the final third to feed him.
Ivan Toney to Score Anytime
…and for him to convert. They dominated United last week and he’ll wonder how he didn’t find the net. But two games in a row with the ball higher up the pitch sits well with his averages, and he’s now due to score. Particularly when factoring in how many number nines Brighton have conceded to in the last two months.
The Draw
Both Teams To Score – Yes
Over 3.5 Goals
Ivan Toney To Have 2 Or More Shots On Target
Ivan Toney To Score
All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.
Tonight’s Betting Tips
The latest football odds are on PaddyPower.com now
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