Tips & Predictions

Saturday’s 27/1 Brighton v Arsenal Bet Builder

BET BUILDER

Arsenal to Win
Both Teams to Score: No
Gabriel Jesus to Score Anytime
Under 10.5 Corners
Over 4.5 Cards

The latest football odds are on PaddyPower.com now

Brighton v Arsenal
Premier League match at the AmEx Stadium, Brighton
TV: Sky Sports Premier League/Main Event, Saturday, 5:30pm

The Premier League title race moves to the south coast on Saturday evening with Brighton hosting Arsenal. Manchester City will likely have won at Crystal Palace at lunchtime, so the Gunners will need a victory to leapfrog them ahead of title favourites Liverpool’s trip to Old Trafford on Sunday.

Got that? The staggering of fixtures for TV means that the lead could easily change hands once or twice every weekend until the final match week of the season. The pressure is never off.

Arsenal won 2-4 at the Amex Stadium last season and beat Brighton 2-0 at the Emirates in December. But those victories are their only triumphs in the last six clashes, and they have just one other win from six Premier League matches in Seagulls’ town. Is this where the third favourites for the title realistically fall out of the race?

Arsenal to Win

This match will be a tight turnaround for both teams, as they were in action on Wednesday night. Arsenal breezed past Luton 2-0 while Brighton endured a goalless stalemate at Brentford.

With Roberto De Zerbi’s men having been at Anfield last weekend, a home match will be most welcome. They have been decent at the Amex too, with West Ham the only side to win there in the league this term (albeit Liverpool and Tottenham are the only teams in the Premier League top six who have visited thus far).

But Arsenal are top of the away table for 2023/24, averaging a very decent two points per game. They have also kept at least twice as many clean sheets on the road as any other team in the division and have shut out their hosts in the last four away games.
Granted, three of those matches were against dross like Burnley, Sheffield United, and West Ham, but they also kept Man City quiet and are averaging less than one expected goal against per game when playing away.

With a defence that solid you must back the Gunners for a win, particularly as only two teams have fewer home clean sheets than Brighton. The Seagulls won’t get many chances to score and Arsenal probably will. Simples.

Both Teams to Score: No

Mikel Arteta has reinvigorated the Gunners’ long-dormant title hopes in the last couple of years and he has breathed new life into the ‘1-0, to the Arsenal’ chant too. His side won by that score line at Brentford, Crystal Palace, and Everton earlier this season. While they might find the net more than once here, the nil side of the equation should remain in place.

Arsenal kept clean sheets in their two visits to the Amex before last season and beat Brighton without conceding the last time they met. The Gunners top the 2023/24 Premier League for wins to nil and should add to their tally here, ensuring a ‘no’ outcome in the Both Teams to Score market.

Gabriel Jesus to Score Anytime

With Bayern Munich in town on Tuesday, Arteta may shuffle his pack here. Gabriel Jesus was an unused substitute in midweek so he will likely start. He has had some excellent games against Brighton over the years. He opened the scoring the last time the teams clashed, bagged the only goal of an FA Cup semi-final against them and once scored and got two assists in a league game at the Amex.

The Brazilian remains a frustratingly inconsistent finisher but with Bukayo Saka an injury doubt, Jesus is the best anytime goal scorer pick.

Don’t forget about our new Super Sub offer where if you back a player in certain markets, if they’re substituted their picks transfer over to who they’ve been replaced by. Read more about Paddy Power’s Super Sub offer here.

Under 10.5 Corners

These teams generate a lot of corners when they meet, with an average of 12.6 per game across the last five seasons in the league. But that goes against their records in 2023/24, as both are in the bottom three for total corners per match. Most pertinently, no team has seen fewer home games pay out on Over 10.5 Corners than Brighton.

How low should we go? Six of the Seagulls’ 14 matches at the Amex have been in single figures for corners, so Under 10.5 looks a solidly safe selection.

Over 4.5 Cards

As we’ve gone against the head-to-head history for corners, we may as well do the same for cards. The difference here is that the last nine league meetings have averaged 3.6 and we should aim a little higher.

Brighton’s matches this season have averaged 5.1 cards and only two of their home games have seen fewer than four. The match referee for two fixtures at the Amex was John Brooks, just as it is here, and he showed six cards both times.

While that is above his Premier League career average, Brooks is the card-heaviest whistler the top flight has to offer. He’ll show over 4.5 Cards here, you can be sure of it.

BET BUILDER

Arsenal to Win
Both Teams to Score: No
Gabriel Jesus to Score Anytime
Under 10.5 Corners
Over 4.5 Cards

All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change.

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