France face Italy in Milan on Thursday, 12 November 2026, with a place in the UEFA Nations League quarter-finals and potentially top spot in Group A at stake.
Zinedine Zidane’s side lead the group with 10 points from four matches. Italy are on seven points, Belgium have six, while Turkey have yet to register a point.
The meeting at San Siro is therefore more than a contest between the group’s top two teams. France can confirm qualification before the final round of fixtures, while a victory would guarantee first place.
The reverse fixture ended 1-1, with an error by Lucas da Cunha contributing to Italy’s equaliser. France now return to Italy knowing they remain in control of their own position, but with qualification their immediate priority.
A draw would be enough to qualify
According to French network RMC, France need only avoid defeat to guarantee a finish in the top two and secure their place in the quarter-finals.
That result would also leave Italy and Belgium competing for the second qualification spot when they meet in Brussels on Sunday. A point in Milan would therefore prevent France from being drawn into a final-round battle for qualification.
Zidane’s team can settle the group even earlier by beating Italy. A victory at San Siro would mathematically confirm France as Group A winners, regardless of the result of the final fixtures.
That could allow Zidane to make changes and give opportunities to younger players when France host Turkey in Bordeaux three days later.
However, France could also finish top with a draw. To do so, they must score at least two goals in Milan. Under the competition’s rules, head-to-head records are used to separate teams level on points, making a high-scoring draw sufficient for France to secure first place.
France’s possible routes
– Draw with Italy: France qualify for the quarter-finals. They finish top if they score at least two goals.
– Beat Italy: France qualify and officially win the group.
– Lose to Italy: France remain in contention for both qualification and top spot, with their final match against Turkey decisive.
Should France lose in Milan, victory over Turkey on Sunday would guarantee their place in the quarter-finals. That result would also give them first position if Italy fail to beat Belgium, with either a draw or defeat for Italy enough to allow France to reclaim the lead.
France therefore travel to Milan with a significant advantage in the group standings. Zidane’s side can afford some margin for error, but a win would remove the need to wait for the final round before their qualification and position at the top are confirmed.
